Olympics 2014: Brought to you on ESPN?

Didn’t I just post about how NBC has made itself synonymous with the Olympics? Their contract runs out in 2012, and the bidding for the 2014 and 2016 games are coming up. The news today is that ABC-owned ESPN is interested in bidding for the games, along with Fox. I wanted to compare NBC and ESPN to see how this move could affect the games:

Affiliates. In addition to ABC and ESPN, certain live events could run on ABC Family, the way NBC is making use of USA and MSNBC for additional live coverage. It could be an epic opportunity for the Disney Channel to run more Olympic-themed content for a new generation of fans.

Live broadcasting. NBC lucked out in persuading Beijing to schedule swimming and gymnastics in the morning to ensure the best events were broadcast live, but many other key events like track and field were delayed. ESPN scoffs at NBC’s tendency to save the playback for primetime and promises live broadcasts all the time. But even in this age of mobile alerts, when immediate results are only a Google away, viewers are still tuning into the games at their highest rates in years. Besides, NBC is already live streaming many events successfully, and will no doubt have even better live online coverage in six years.

Visibility. Having the Olympics on network TV in primetime ensures the potential for wide reach. Everyone assumes that the cable penetration by 2016 will be as high as Yelena Isinbayeva’s pole vault, but John Rash noted that in 2008 in Minneapolis, it’s only about 75%. Another thing: Olympic viewership, though up among males this year, generally skews female. Would Olympic sponsors like Johnson & Johnson trust that their female target will flip to ESPN in droves?

Publicity. NBC’s reach matters more than just during the games, too. Olympic promos (like that logo integration I was talking about) hit viewers in the months leading up to the game. The early hype of the #1 Today Show drives conversation and interest in the games more than Good Morning America or Sports Center ever could.

Nostalgia. For die-hard fans of “normal” sports like the MLB, it wouldn’t matter who was announcing, we would still tune in to see our Twins kill the A’s 13-2. But for the (female, not necessarily sports fan) demographic who tunes into the Olympics, the personality of the Olympic broadcasters is part of the experience. Would the post-gold-medal interviews be as good if hosted by anyone but Bob Costas? What will our morning coffee be if it can’t be enjoyed while Al Roker gives the weather live from Sochi, Russia? It all comes down to the fact that the Olympic audience matches the NBC audience better than the ESPN audience.

The I.O.C. would be making a mistake if they went with ESPN, even if they scraped a few million dollars more out of the deal. NBC has done exceptionally well with the Olympic games, driving their popularity through the roof this summer. If Michael Phelps’s 8th gold had been on ESPN, and 25% fewer people had been watching, would he still be receiving the insane amount of media coverage he’s getting now? Would the viewership even be that high without NBC’s pre-race PR? To keep interest at its peak, the I.O.C. needs to maximize their publicity, and the best way is through a network.

Now pass me the chips and dip and let’s watch some obscure sport we’ll never think of again until 2012!

UPDATE: After reading this AdAge article, I'm quite sure NBC won't be in a hurry to drop the Olympics in 2014. All together now: WHEW.